Causal Graph ODE: Continuous Treatment Effect Modeling in Multi-agent Dynamical Systems (preprint)

Real-world multi-agent systems are often dynamic and continuous, where the agents co-evolve and undergo changes in their trajectories and interactions over time. For example, the COVID-19 transmission in the U.S. can be viewed as a multi-agent system, where states act as agents and daily population movements between them are interactions. Estimating the counterfactual outcomes in such systems enables accurate future predictions and effective decision-making, such as formulating COVID-19 policies. However, existing methods fail to model the continuous dynamic effects of treatments on the outcome, especially when multiple treatments (e.g., "stay-at-home" and "get-vaccine" policies) are applied simultaneously. To tackle this challenge, we propose Causal Graph Ordinary Differential Equations (CAG-ODE), a novel model that captures the continuous interaction among agents using a Graph Neural Network (GNN) as the ODE function. The key innovation of our model is to learn time-dependent representations of treatments and incorporate them into the ODE function, enabling precise predictions of potential outcomes. To mitigate confounding bias, we further propose two domain adversarial learning-based objectives, which enable our model to learn balanced continuous representations that are not affected by treatments or interference. Experiments on two datasets (i.e., COVID-19 and tumor growth) demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed model.

A Mobility-Aware Deep Learning Model for Long-Term COVID-19 Pandemic Prediction and Policy Impact Analysis (preprint)

Pandemic(epidemic) modeling, aiming at disease spreading analysis, has always been a popular research topic especially following the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2019. Some representative models including SIR-based deep learning prediction models have shown satisfactory performance. However, one major drawback for them is that they fall short in their long-term predictive ability. Although graph convolutional networks (GCN) also perform well, their edge representations do not contain complete information and it can lead to biases. Another drawback is that they usually use input features which they are unable to predict. Hence, those models are unable to predict further future. We propose a model that can propagate predictions further into the future and it has better edge representations. In particular, we model the pandemic as a spatial-temporal graph whose edges represent the transition of infections and are learned by our model. We use a two-stream framework that contains GCN and recursive structures (GRU) with an attention mechanism. Our model enables mobility analysis that provides an effective toolbox for public health researchers and policy makers to predict how different lock-down strategies that actively control mobility can influence the spread of pandemics. Experiments show that our model outperforms others in its long-term predictive power. Moreover, we simulate the effects of certain policies and predict their impacts on infection control.

Bio-JOIE: Joint Representation Learning of Biological Knowledge Bases (preprint)

The widespread of Coronavirus has led to a worldwide pandemic with a high mortality rate. Currently, the knowledge accumulated from different studies about this virus is very limited. Leveraging a wide-range of biological knowledge, such as gene ontology and protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks from other closely related species presents a vital approach to infer the molecular impact of a new species. In this paper, we propose the transferred multi-relational embedding model Bio-JOIE to capture the knowledge of gene ontology and PPI networks, which demonstrates superb capability in modeling the SARS-CoV-2-human protein interactions. Bio-JOIE jointly trains two model components. The knowledge model encodes the relational facts from the protein and GO domains into separated embedding spaces, using a hierarchy-aware encoding technique employed for the GO terms. On top of that, the transfer model learns a non-linear transformation to transfer the knowledge of PPIs and gene ontology annotations across their embedding spaces. By leveraging only structured knowledge, Bio-JOIE significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods in PPI type prediction on multiple species. Furthermore, we also demonstrate the potential of leveraging the learned representations on clustering proteins with enzymatic function into enzyme commission families. Finally, we show that Bio-JOIE can accurately identify PPIs between the SARS-CoV-2 proteins and human proteins, providing valuable insights for advancing research on this new disease.

Bio-JOIE: Joint Representation Learning of Biological Knowledge Bases (preprint)

The widespread of Coronavirus has led to a worldwide pandemic with a high mortality rate. Currently, the knowledge accumulated from different studies about this virus is very limited. Leveraging a wide-range of biological knowledge, such as gene on-tology and protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks from other closely related species presents a vital approach to infer the molecular impact of a new species. In this paper, we propose the transferred multi-relational embedding model Bio-JOIE to capture the knowledge of gene ontology and PPI networks, which demonstrates superb capability in modeling the SARS-CoV-2-human protein interactions. Bio-JOIE jointly trains two model components. The knowledge model encodes the relational facts from the protein and GO domains into separated embedding spaces, using a hierarchy-aware encoding technique employed for the GO terms. On top of that, the transfer model learns a non-linear transformation to transfer the knowledge of PPIs and gene ontology annotations across their embedding spaces. By leveraging only structured knowledge, Bio-JOIE significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods in PPI type prediction on multiple species. Furthermore, we also demonstrate the potential of leveraging the learned representations on clustering proteins with enzymatic function into enzyme commission families. Finally, we show that Bio-JOIE can accurately identify PPIs between the SARS-CoV-2 proteins and human proteins, providing valuable insights for advancing research on this new disease.